Nigeria: the ₦7 trillion mobile data “boom” is an illusion

In the first half of 2026, one figure made headlines in Nigeria: residents had supposedly spent ₦6.98 trillion on mobile data. For many commentators, it was proof of a thriving digital economy. A detailed analysis published by the outlet The Condia shows that it is mostly a calculation error, and that reality tells a far less cheerful story.

Where the ₦7 trillion figure comes from

The figure was obtained by multiplying the total volume of data carried by the networks, 8.52 million terabytes according to official statistics from the regulator, the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), by an assumed uniform retail price of ₦800 per gigabyte. Yet almost nobody pays that price for all their data: night bundles at ₦150 or ₦250 per gigabyte, monthly volume plans and daily promotions bring the real average price down sharply.

Operators’ accounts give a more accurate picture. According to the financial documents cited by The Condia, MTN Nigeria reported about ₦1.7 trillion in data revenue in the first half, and Airtel Nigeria about ₦691 billion. Adding estimates for Globacom and 9mobile, fixed internet providers and Starlink, the total actually collected by the sector would be between ₦2.8 trillion and ₦3.2 trillion. Valuing the traffic at a realistic average price of about ₦431 per gigabyte gives some ₦3.67 trillion.

Fewer users, paying more

Even brought down to ₦3 trillion, the sum remains enormous. But it does not reflect expansion. According to NCC data cited in the analysis, more than a million active internet subscriptions disappeared in 2026. Inflation and the naira’s depreciation have pushed up the price of devices: an entry-level smartphone reportedly costs close to ₦220,000. Millions of low-income Nigerians can no longer replace their phone or renew their line.

Those who stay connected spend a growing share of shrinking incomes on data bundles, because they have no choice: transfers, remote work and daily trade all go through the phone. Operators’ revenue is therefore rising, not because the market is growing, but because a user base under pressure is paying more.

A network that breaks 2,500 times a day

The second part of the explanation is physical. According to official NCC figures, operators recorded 155,397 fibre optic cable cuts in April and May 2026, about 2,500 a day. The causes: poorly coordinated road works, vandalism and theft, and disputes with local communities over rights of way. Repairing these cables reportedly costs operators between ₦27 billion and ₦35 billion a year. Each cut also interrupts service for thousands of users, while a team locates the break, negotiates access to the site and repairs the fibre, sometimes for several hours.

Then there is the energy trap. More than 75% of the country’s roughly 50,000 base stations run entirely off the power grid, on diesel generators. When diesel prices rise, the cost of running the network follows. A site acquisition specialist, Abdulbaseet Olayinka Amoo, estimates that a complete mast costs ₦40 million to ₦50 million, and that a rural site can approach ₦100 million once procedures, permits and site works are counted, before carrying a single byte.

« What a subscriber pays for data is not pure margin on top. A real share goes into building the site, then keeping it standing. »

Abdulbaseet Olayinka Amoo, telecom site acquisition specialist (paraphrased)

The data that “disappears”

Many subscribers complain that their bundle melts away faster than their usage justifies. The analysis offers a technical explanation. When the network is unstable, and the first quarter of 2026 saw 577 major outages according to the figures cited, data transfers fail midway. The user retries their payment or reloads the page, and the phone resends data that had already been sent.

NCC audits confirm that operators’ billing systems measure data correctly. But they count everything that passes through, including failed attempts. The subscriber is not charged twice for the same successful operation, infrastructure expert Olalekan Ifatimehin points out, but they do use data for attempts that did not succeed. An unstable network is therefore also a more expensive network for the user. Poorly designed apps make the problem worse: some automatically restart interrupted downloads, or reload whole pages instead of only the missing information. On a reliable network, these flaws go unnoticed; on a fragile one, they are paid for in naira.

Why the wrong figure spread

The ₦7 trillion figure was repeated without checking because it seemed logical: an official volume, a known price, a multiplication. It is a common mistake in handling digital statistics. A volume of data has no single price, and the advertised price of a bundle is not the average price actually paid. To estimate spending, you have to start from the revenue companies publish, then cross-check it with volumes, not the other way round.

This confusion is not harmless. An inflated figure feeds the idea that operators are making excessive profits, which weighs on debates about tariff increases, and can mask the real problems: the state of infrastructure, the cost of energy and the fall in the number of users. Public policy based on such a figure would start from a wrong diagnosis.

What it says about the digital economy

The ₦7 trillion figure did at least have one unintended merit: showing the place of the phone in Nigerian economic life. By way of comparison, it exceeded the internally generated revenue of all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, which amounted to ₦5.15 trillion for the whole of 2025. But presenting this spending as proof of a healthy digital economy confuses the cost of a service with its success.

For data spending to become a sign of dynamism, it would need to come with more users, more affordable devices and a more reliable network. Coordinating road works with operators, protecting telecom infrastructure, now classified as critical national infrastructure, and connecting masts to the power grid are all levers for reducing the “inefficiency tax” that Nigerians pay today.